Mer. Feb 11th, 2026

Esplode il conflitto tra Russia e Ucraina


Alla fine lo scenario più temuto si è realizzato: Putin ha dato il via all’invasione dell’Ucraina oggi all’alba. A
nulla sono valsi i tentativi diplomatici per scongiurare una guerra che preannuncia scenari turbolenti per il
Vecchio Continente. Già, perché dati alla mano il conflitto porterebbe un numero di sfollati interni pari a
1,5 milioni e a un numero di vittime stimato di circa 13 mila ucraini. A ciò si aggiunge anche l’estrema
dipendenza dell’Europa del gas russo; infatti l’Europa dovrebbe rinunciare a oltre il 30% di metano che
arriva dalla Russia visto che nel pacchetto di sanzioni, il gasdotto Nord Stream 2 verrebbe colpito
aggravando la già precaria situazione energetica europea. Ma cosa spinge Putin a compiere una mossa così
azzardata? Le radici di questo conflitto risalgono all’anno della caduta dell’Urss nel 1991 che portò
all’indipendenza dell’Ucraina, indipendenza mai accettata da Putin che ha sempre definito l’Ucraina come
un territorio appartenente alla Russia. Oltre alle rivendicazioni storiche, è importante sottolineare il ruolo
della Nato, che dal crollo dell’URSS ha allargato il suo braccio di intervento verso est includendo nel blocco
occidentale paesi come: la Repubblica Ceca, Ungheria, Polonia, Bulgaria, i paesi baltici, Romania,
Slovacchia, Slovenia, Albania, Croazia, Montenegro e Macedonia del Nord ponendo di fatto la Russia in una
condizione di accerchiamento, che con l’adesione dell’Ucraina alla Nato avrebbe portato i missili Nato alle
porte della Russia. Bisogna ora chiederci in che modo potrebbe evolversi l’occupazione russa in Ucraina,
Putin non può pensare di occupare per intero l’Ucraina, un paese vasto due volte l’Italia. Lo scenario più
plausibile porterebbe la Russia a ridurre ai minimi termini l’Ucraina sottraendole altro territorio,
espandendo il Donbass di fatto già annesso: a Sud fino al porto ucraino di Mariupol’ o addirittura fino alla
Crimea annessa alla Federazione Russa nel 2014 con un controverso referendum, tagliando così l’Ucraina
fuori dal Mar Azov, privandola dunque dell’accesso al Mar Nero; o a Nord verso il polo industriale della città di Kharkiv.
In poche parole ciò che rimarrebbe dell’Ucraina sarebbe uno stato cuscinetto diviso fra Russia e Ucraina.

Raffaele Borrelli

Internazionale, Striscione, Bandiera

By Editore

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